讀書果陣寫過好多文章，都係為左交功課同考試，而且果陣能力唔高，好多都寫到好表面，同埋用詞簡淺，早幾日比我係櫃底搵到，我決定打上黎分享下~~
第五篇繼續係來我讀ASSO果陣應用社會科學入面既<Science, Technology and Society>
題目係:Explain the idea of “peak oil”. what are the possible effects and consequences of peak oil on global economy?
P.S.
1) 用左好多不能證實既推論
2) 文字經常重覆
3) 論點分類較弱
Peak oil was stated by United States geologist King Hubbert in 1953. It means the oil extraction rates would decrease when there are shortage of oil continue to worse after the rates become maximum (Chris Martenson, 2008, Ch. 15). Nowadays, oil is very important and necessary for human in the world. If there is peak oil, it will have big effects on global economy.
First, peal oil leads to economic loss due to lacking of electric power. Oil is the main material for planting power, other kinds of power plant, like the nuclear wastes is very difficult to handle, hydroelectricity would destroy the environment, the cost of solar energy is very expensive, etc. therefore oil is the most necessary material to plant power now (伍旭升, 2002, p.172). Nowadays, electricity is very important in human's living, people need electricity on amusement, internet trade, information transfer or technology improvement, If there is not enough oil, people cannot produce enough power to maintain the operation and the development of global economy with other kinds of power plant (p.170). Because of that reason, people would lose a lot of money due to the peak oil.
Second, oil products will become expensive because of peak oil, the cost of human living would increase. People always use petroleum products in daily life, for instance, plastic, diesel, liquefied petroleum gas, etc. (伍旭升,2002, p.176) If there is peak oil, people would have not enough material to produce those petroleum products. Based on economic theory, the quantity supply of oil products decrease, the cost and price of oil products would increase, people need to spend more money on their living. On the other hand, peak oil would also increase the price of other goods and services indirectly, include transportation and food. Since peak oil would increase the price of diesel and liquefied petroleum gas, transportation companies and restaurants would have higher cost, so they would raise the price. Overall, peak oil would increase the cost of living.
Third, many countries would lose money due to peak oil. Since the OPEC uses American dollar to be the trade currency of oil between other countries, and most of the oil companies were come from American, which means American oil companies monopolized the oil market nearly over the world (威廉, 2008, p.149). When the price of oil increases, those oil companies would increase the price, it will increase the financial deficit of many countries because other countries, third world specially, would want to convert more money into American dollar to buy oil. During the price of oil increase, it will leads to global inflation and unemployment rate would increase because companies have higher cost (伍旭升,2002, p.169). Therefore, peak oil would lead to big economic loss of many countries.
Fourth, peak oil may leads to world war. Oil is very necessary for all countries as people do not find other things to replace oil, when there is lacking of oil, people may snatch oil with violence and lead to wars (王革華, 2005, p.146), and economy cannot develop stably or depressive due to wars. There was an example in Middle East, some countries fought to Iran for the ownership of oil since it has much oil in Iran (p.147). If there is shortage of oil in the whole world, all the countries would fight to other countries where still have oil with violence, then it will cause world war. And people need to use much money to replace buildings, save human's life and purchase weapons. Thus, people lost much money during the world war because of peak oil.
In conclusion, peak oil would have bad impact to global economy. Oil is very important and necessary for human now. Shortage of oil would increase the price that oil produces; it leads to inflation and increasing of unemployment rate. Peak oil may also leads to the world war. Therefore, if the peak oil happens, global economy would be depression, only when people find other things which can replace oil.
References:
- Chris Martenson. 2008. Crash Course DVD special Edition Set. CMAL LLC.
- 威廉, 恩道爾. 2008. 石油戰爭. 知識產權出版社.
- 伍旭升, 高偉. 2002. 百年科技利弊. 三聯書店（香港）有限公司.
- 王革華. 2005. 能源與可持續發展. 化學工業出版社.
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